Monday, July 29, 2019

Topsy turvy economics

I was just reading about unfunded Social Security liabilities in the US exceeding $43 tn and going up at the rate of $25 billion daily!!

Largish numbers like this make my brain go oh-this-is-above-your-pay-grade and let the pundits do their job.

To simple ole me, things appear as follows:

1/ In ancient times you could only eat what is already caught, grown or cooked. Nature

2/ Next you could also eat what neigbhour caught today but wants to eat tomorrow, provided you replace before s/he wants tomorrow.  So basically get someone to produce AND postpone her consumption.  Communism (sort of)

3/ Next stage elongating the producers postponement with promise of "more" than borrowed now being returned at later date. Capitalism (sort of)

4/ Today Democracy.  Society has taken upon itself feeding and taking care of ever increasing needs of people which is simply impossible as there isn't enough produced to meet all needs and desire.  So now to meet todays consumption, we not only borrow from neighbours near and far but also borrow from tomorrow and the year after that and the decade after that. Basically hocking the lives of future generation to pay for our consumption.

"Developed" nations happily report debt exceeding 100% of GDP.  Essentially saying all that we as a nation consumed this year will be paid for in the future (wink wink not you, but your grand children).  [Nitpickers will argue that nations also have assets to counteract debt, but really the only big asset nations have is their gun and consequent ability to tax folks.]

"Emerging" economies are fools who have not cottoned on to this simple scheme of 'eat today; pay next year' as their financial markets are yet undeveloped.  But worry not under "globalisation" we will teach you this and take our share of the future labors of your future kids.

This model works fine as long  as we can instil the values of hard work, thrift and sacrifice in the societal lambs.

Implicit in this model is a human extinction event when all debt scores are reset and a new protein (?) can restart life.

As Herbert Hoover said, "Blessed are the young for it is they who will inherit the national debt" ... yup that while waiting for a hurtling rock to slam into earth.

PS - 

1 comment:

  1. Thankfully the new generation is smarter than we want them to be. Lets not be surprised if they disown the debt, the corporations, the lifestyle and force the play field to be level set. Demand-supply chain will determine the winners and losers and reshape the new world

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